Good Tuesday Morning. As of 6:30am:
Water vapor imagery and radar continue to show showers and thunderstorms pushing off to the east. The residual cold air wedge currently in place will lift north toward the NC/SC boarder with a warm front this morning. Currently the front is draped just south of the I-85 corridor. A weak cold front will cross the area today. Behind the front, high pressure will move into the region for a brief stay. Another area of low pressure will bring rainfall to the area for Wednesday and that rain will stick around into Thursday Morning. That rainfall may briefly mix with snow in Caldwell and Alexander Counties before ending Thursday Morning. No accumulation is forecast until you get up into Virginia where the cold air will be more conducive for winter precipitation types.
A complex weather situation will take shape today. This wedge front (now a warm front) should continue to erode and lift north. This will allow warm temperatures move in. Additionally as the weak front crosses the area today down sloping off of the mountains will compress and warm the air. Areas from Marion, Morganton, and Lenoir will see the greatest effects of the down sloping winds. This means that those areas may be able to get up to around 70° this afternoon. Since the wedge front is lifting North the southern foothills and Rutherfordton, Columbus, and Shelby should also be able to bump up into the upper 60’s to around 70°. I’m a little worried still that areas from Hickory to Taylorsville may get stuck in the wedge a bit longer. This means that temperatures may only reach the low to mid 60’s in that northeast quadrant of the forecast area. Something to watch.
The widespread rainfall from overnight is over as the prefrontal boundary has pushed east of our area, taking the thunderstorms with it. There could be a few showers lingering around as a upper level feature ripples across the area.
The HRRR and NAM have come in even cooler in regards to high temperatures today. I think both are too strong with this in-situ CAD dome and therefore temperatures are likely underdone on the models. Though I have bumped forecast highs back a nudge I think most areas, aside from that northeast corner from Hickory to Taylorsville, could still make a run into the upper 60’s. If we are going to see any 70’s today though I think it will be in the areas immediately east of the Blue Ridge west of Morganton, Marion, and Lenoir. Stay tuned. This blog post will be updated through the day.
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