Good Saturday afternoon, hope everyone is doing well…
The winter weather event from yesterday has now passed and we shift our attention down the road as we will be entering the middle of January by the end of the upcoming work-week.
A look at the synoptic pattern for this week features continued heights across the Northern US and into Canada with lower heights across the Southern tier of the country. That is a continued effect from the massive Greenland Block that formed early this week. It’s forcing all upper level evergy to take a southern track.
Note the general flat nature of the trough in the Southeast? That signals fast moving features that can’t amplify. A few days ago we are watching for the potential of another winter weather threat for this upcoming Monday Night and Tuesday but due to the fast nature of the flow, this next system won’t have the time to amplify and become a significant precipitation maker. Models have decreased the precipitation for Monday night and early Tuesday significantly in recent cycles, to the point that we are not concerned about impactful weather from this anymore.
This fast moving southern stream will remain in that position through about Thursday before things begin to re-load.
If you look at the 5-10 Day height anomaly, the Greenland Block begins to flex its muscle again while a ridge pops back up along the West Coast of North America. Cold arctic air will shoot the gap between the two ridges and flood into Canada and the United States, by next weekend a deep trough forms in the Southeast meaning colder weather and probably some northwest flow snows for the Appalachians.
Once we get into the long range it appears that the ridge combo will generally be in tact with a slight retrogration west. Instead of shortwaves in the flow diving straight into the Southeast, they will be allowed to dive into the Plains and then move east into the Southern tier. That is an amplifed trough for the 10-15 Day range for the east so one has to wonder if this will lead to potential winter weather production down the road? Something to think about in the long range (Jan 19th and beyond)
Regardless, the weather pattern features a pretty cold pattern for the forseeable future. The front five days will be the warmest and still we’re talking temperatures at best five degrees above normal…you can see on the animation below how the current block has flooded the US moderately cold air at 5,000 ft (850mb) and the incoming surge in the medium to long range.