Sponsored by Four Seasons Property Maintenance here is your Thursday Morning Update.
Good morning everyone. We are approximately 12-15 hours away from the start of this upcoming winter storm. Any needed preparations should be completed by 7pm tonight.
A vigorous upper level low pressure is centered over Newellton Louisiana and crossing the Mississippi River from Louisiana over to Mississippi. The precipitation shield stretches 368 miles to the north-northwest and 309 miles to the south-southeast of the central low. Minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Present movement is east-northeast near 58mph. This upper level low pressure will weaken and decouple as it approaches our area. Various models project slightly different timing of when that would happen but generally have the same consensus for our area.
The absolute earliest that we would see precipitation into our area is 7pm. More likely though, our forecast timeline will have the precipitation beginning 10:00pm and Midnight. Precipitation overspreads the area from the southwest starting in that timeframe, beginning in the southwest corner (Rutherford County) and then spreading North and east through the night. Don’t be caught off guard when you see rain falling as precipitation starts tonight. Surface to 925 mb ( approx. 3000ft) temperatures will be just a hair too warm for all areas outside of the mountains. We are relying on the upper atmosphere to cool the lower levels in a process called evaporational cooling. As the initial precipitation evaporates it lowers the air temperature toward the dewpoint. That dewpoint will be key in this event. Along I 40 and north of I 40 we are confident that temperatures will reach freezing or just below. Confidence is not great that anyone south of I-40 except for the South Mountains, will get to freezing or below. A battle ground is setting up between roughly I – 40 Highway 74 it appears right now. This is an area where snow will mix with sleet or liquid rain that could cut down totals. As the remnant upper low moves over the area Friday bands of intense snowfall could occur. Those will be the areas that see the highest totals. That is impossible to forecast at this time.
We feel good with where our forecast totals stand across the region right now.